Monday, May 4, 2015

A Crisis of Scientific Confidence

Recently National Geographic's cover story focused on the "War on Science", i.e. the failure of a growing segment of the population to take scientific findings at face value. The article was a bit disappointing in that rather than providing an analysis it appeared to have more of an agenda to it (namely promoting climate warming).
The author cites quite a variety of scientific theories that are not universally embraced. On one side of the spectrum are the cases where people reject findings that are backed up by a lot of impartial evidence such as that we have landed on the Moon or that fluoridated water cuts tooth decay. On the other side of the spectrum we have Achenbach's assertion that doubting climate change induced by man's increase of CO2 emissions is equally misguided. Undoubtedly the author hopes that by placing skeptics of homo sapien induced climate warming into the same category as deniers of the Moon landing or parents withholding vaccinations out of fear of autism that they will change their mind or at the very least silence them out of embarrassment.
The conspiracy fringe will always be with us. Whether it be the Kennedy assassination or the communist plot of fluoridated water, there are people who just love a good controversy even when none exists. You might as well be shocked that some people love to gossip. But the real story here that did not get the attention it needed is that science is experiencing a doubting population because it is appears bought and sold. There is no more potent ally for that new tax or regulation if only it will agree with your point of view. The CEOs and politicos won't let science be science and follow the scientific method. Science now seems to be increasingly pulled by the purse strings that can come with the correct findings. One camp will not share data with the other for fear they may find a flaw. Objective scientific analysis is replaced by turf wars. Perhaps as the author suggests this mistrust of science is only people "subconsciously clinging to our intuitions—what researchers call our naive beliefs".
The prime directive of science - to test your hypothesis through well designed experiments - is subjugated to cries of we need to shut off any debate or discussion because "the matter is settled". How many times, especially with an issue with so many complex variables as climate prediction, has science been sure of one thing only to discover it was wrong. To quote Agent K from MIB, "1,500 years ago, everybody knew that the Earth was the center of the universe. 500 years ago, everybody knew that the Earth was flat. And 15 minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow."
Until science can gain some insulation from the influencers and reaffirm the scientific method which never closes discussion, the crisis in confidence will likely malinger.